Overview

The beginning of the crop is near, a few areas have started being planted, but nothing significant yet. The intentions of planting area still seem to be a decrease of 30-35%, which is coming closer and closer to become a reality.

Prices for raw material are lower than we have seen since the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, however, the raw material available is mostly of lower quality.

Anuga has not brought many changes to the market, with suppliers mentioning a lot of speculation and few actual businesses being done. While some mention that the prices have not changed much, others mention very low offers from some suppliers desperate to sell.

As for outside of the EU, Russia has shown some demand, but only for spot contracts, while Chinese demand keeps going down, with BIDs at very low and unattractive levels, not resulting in any businesses.

Exports

Exports of peanuts maintained steady. However, as expected and mentioned in previous reports, exports to China started their descent, result of the Chinese crop that slowed their demand for external product.

Peanut oil export decreased significantly, also a result of the Chinese crop and consequently demand reduction.

Comparing to August, China decrease its imports from Brazil in about 8 thousand tons for peanut oil (20 thousand tons crushed), and 4 thousand tons in peanuts. This would result in about 24 thousand tons of peanuts overall.

This comes to show what is well known: how much of a role Chinese demand can play in the market. This decrease was expected, it is a seasonal market, as any agricultural product, and Brazil apparently used its window as well as possible to sell as much lower quality material as it could. Which was crucial to avoid an even higher unbalance in the offer to demand ratio.

Peanuts

Total

Peanut exports in 2025 x 2024.

Brazilian exports of peanuts, NCM 12024200, Ministry of Agriculture.

During September, Brazil exported about 30 thousand tons of peanuts, this represents a 19 % increase compared to September 24, and no change compared to August 25. Although China decreased its imports, EU, Russia and Algeria have picked up the numbers and maintained the exports at their level, which is very good for Brazil. Still China represents 1/3 of the total volume exported this month. (further analysis below)

This volume adds to a total 208 thousand tons of peanuts exported this year, 25% more than the same period last year. We have seen an average of 23 thousand tons so far, which, if maintained, can take the Brazilian exports to about 276 thousand tons. It would be a very good number, however hard to accomplish. Let us see what the next months have reserved.

Destination

Exported volumes to main destinations.

Brazilian exports of peanuts, NCM 12024200, Ministry of Agriculture.

China exports went down dramatically by about 7K tons, while Russia, EU and Algeria went up about 1,5K. While Chinese imports will most likely keep its tendency, it is harder to understand the remaining destinations.

EU demand is very slow, therefore, the current volume most likely comes from contracts being fulfilled. Russia is in its high season, which explains the high trend that should be maintained. Algeria exports had been coming from steady decrease since default issues, but now seem to be back on track, not sure for how long.

Peanut Oil

Peanut oil exports in 2025 x 2024

Brazilian exports of peanut oil, NCM 15081000, Ministry of Agriculture.

Brazil exports of peanut oil during September were of about 10 thousand tons, this is a 31% decrease compared to last month. And an 80% increase, compared to September 24.

This number adds to a total of about 108 thousand tons of peanut oil exported this year (12 thousand tons shorter than our record year, 2022), 162% more than last year, which is fundamental for Brazil.

Although the exports shall keep a lower trend, it may still be possible that we will see a record year, thanks to the very high figures seen since February.

Destination

Exported volumes to main destinations.

Brazilian exports of peanut oil, NCM 15081000, Ministry of Agriculture.

As usual, the fluctuation in peanut oil exports is mostly due to Chinese imports, with 8,5 thousand tons, about 3,5 thousand tons decrease. Italian imports dcropped about 1,1 thousand tons.

  

Disclaimer: All the information published is checked with many processors and farmers in Brazil, there are no personal opinions but an average of the market’s main players thoughts. August 11^th, 2025.