Overview 

Crop development and weather  

The crop continues to develop well overall, some irrigation areas, able to be planted earlier, are already being harvested, but the greatest part of the areas still have at least February and March to develop. 

Nevertheless, during January, the weather has not been so cooperative. Some complaints can be heard from different sources about the lack of rain and excessive heat in Alta Paulista, that could disturb productivity. While Mogiana is starting to have issues with excessive rain, according to the growers in that area.  

The next 10 days are forecasted to be rainy in Alta Paulista, with rains of about 10mm forecasted, which should help. And even more rainy in Mogiana and Middle-Tiete regions, with rains of about 20 to 30mm forecasted.  

Overall, the situation remains cautiously optimistic as we move forward into the critical months ahead. 

Tax regulations:  

Exports: 

December figures showed an expected decline in peanut exports, and a slight increase in peanut oil exports.  

Now that the whole calendar year export numbers are available, let’s take a look on more detailed comparisons to the exports in the last 3 years, analyzing total volume and main importers, below:  

Peanuts 

Total 

Peanuts export in 2024 x 2023  

Month	2024 - (K Tons)	2023 - (K Tons)	Var (%)
Jan	23,0	20,7	11%
Feb	17,2	15,8	9%
Mar	12,9	18,5	-30%
Apr	13,4	22,4	-40%
May	18,0	27,2	-34%
June	19,0	25,5	-26%
July	15,6	31,6	-51%
Aug	22,3	34,7	-36%
Sep	24,9	26,6	-6%
Oct	17,8	25,2	-29%
Nov	28,1	28,3	-1%
Dec	14,6	20,9	-30%
Total	226,8	297,5	-24%

 

Brazilian exports of peanuts, NCM 12024200, Ministry of Agriculture.  

During December, Brazil exported 14,6 K tons, half of the exports in November and 30% less than December 23. This volume adds to a total of about 227 thousand tons exported in 2024, a 24% decrease when compared to 2023.  

Brazilian exports of peanuts, NCM 12024200, Ministry of Agriculture.  

When compared to the last 5 years of peanut exports, 2024 displays the second lowest volume, beating only 2019. This is due to the low yield of the crop, affected by extreme heat and droughts (especially Alta Paulista region) complemented by the aflatoxin issues that compromised a big part of the overall volume.  

Destination 

Exported volumes to main destinations.  

Months	Russia	Algeria	EU27
January	7,5	0,9	6,1
February	4,0	0,1	5,1
March	2,8	0,6	1,8
April	3,1	2,2	1,8
May	5,8	4,7	2,7
June	4,5	3,4	3,3
July	4,7	1,1	3,2
August	5,4	5,5	3,9
September	5,8	6,8	2,9
October	5,8	3,3	2,9
November	8,4	8,2	3,6
December	4,6	3,9	1,4
Total	62,3	40,7	38,7

 

The decrease in exports in December is more than expected, with the stocks coming down and the quality of the peanuts also declining, Russia, Algeria and EU received much fewer tons than in the previous month.  

Russia and Algeria dropped by about 4 thousand tons each, while the European Union countries dropped by 2,2 thousand. 

When comparing the last 5-year exports to main destinations, 2024 shows the lowest exported volume to Russia, the second lowest exported volume to the EU+UK and a sudden decline in a market that has been increasing for the Brazilian exporters, Algeria.  

This recent loss of share in the main importer demands will have to be reverted by the exporters in case the crop confirms to be what everyone has been expecting. 

 

Peanut oil  

Peanut Oil export in 2024 x 2023 

Month	2024 - (K Tons)	2023 - (K Tons)	Var (%)
January	3,5	7,2	-51%
February	3,2	7,2	-56%
March	2,9	7,4	-61%
April	5,4	12,7	-57%
May	6,4	9,7	-34%
June	5,4	8,8	-39%
July	4,4	6,5	-32%
August	4,4	5,4	-19%
September	5,4	7,6	-29%
October	3,1	5,5	-44%
November	2,9	5,1	-43%
December	3,7	5,8	-36%
Total	50,7	88,9	-43%

Destinations 

Exported volumes to main destinations so far 

Month	China - (K Tons)	Italy - (K Tons)
Jan	2,9	0,7
Feb	1,1	1,2
Mar	1,0	0,5
Apr	2,6	1,9
May	2,0	3,2
Jun	3,0	0,5
Jul	3,0	0,2
Aug	0,9	1,6
Sep	1,9	1,7
Oct	1,7	1,4
Nov	1,9	1,0
Dec	3,0	0,7
Total	25,0	14,5

 

 

Disclaimer: All the information published is checked with many processors and farmers in Brazil, there are no personal opinions but an average of the market’s main players thoughts. January 2nd, 2025.