Overview

May, June and July are usually the months when the domestic market heats up and prices for growers' stocks rise, driven by stronger seasonal demand. Once again we are seeing this movement, though both growers and shellers remain unsure how much of the increase is purely speculative and how much is actually backed by a tighter-than-expected supply.

As mentioned before, estimates range from 250 to 270 thousand hectares planted, with yields of around 4 to 4.5 MT/ha, which should be enough for a 1 to 1.2 million ton crop. That said, this is a widespread area made up of widespread growers, and estimates are often caught off guard.

On the international side, the market has been accepting prices slightly above the previous months, nothing staggering, but a welcome shift after a long stretch of decline. The relevance of this movement goes beyond the headline figure: since Brazil exports about 70% of its crop, international prices are the main driver of the sector's total revenue, and even modest gains translate into meaningful relief for growers who have been squeezed by higher costs.

To see how important that is, In 2025, for example, prices were so low, that despite a record in exported tonnage, Brazil's revenue from kernel exports came in very close to 2024 — a year in which export volume had been 27% lower. In other words, volume alone does not guarantee a better year for the industry.

 

Peanuts

Total

Peanut exports in 2025/2026 x 2024/2025.

Brazilian exports of peanuts, NCM 12024200, Ministry of Agriculture.

Exports of kernels are up. During May, Brazil exported about 31 thousand tonnes, around 31% more vis-à-vis April, and also about 31% above May 25. This is the strongest month of the 25/26 crop so far, driven by the availability of new crop peanuts reaching the factories.

 

Destination

Exported volumes to main destinations.

Brazilian exports of peanuts, NCM 12024200, Ministry of Agriculture.

Algerian imports jumped sharply in May, almost doubling from April to about 10 thousand tons, becoming the main destination of the month. Russia remained steady at around 7 thousand tons, while EU27 and South Africa both increased slightly.

 

Peanut Oil

Peanut oil exports in 2025/2026 x 2024 /2025

Brazilian exports of peanut oil, NCM 15081000, Ministry of Agriculture.

Peanut oil exports rose about 58% vis-à-vis April 26, reaching roughly 17 thousand tons, the strongest month of the 25/26 crop so far. This was practically in line with May 25, about 1% lower.

 

Destination

Exported volumes to main destinations.

Brazilian exports of peanut oil, NCM 15081000, Ministry of Agriculture.

Both main destinations increased its imports, however, China had a much more significant increase, almost doubling from April and returning to around 15 thousand tons, while Italy rose only slightly.

  

Disclaimer: All the information published is checked with many processors and farmers in Brazil, there are no personal opinions but an average of the market’s main players thoughts. June 29^th, 2026.